BRAZILIAN ECONOMY OVERTAKES UK’s SAYS CEBR
[BBC, 26 December 2011]
Well no surprise there. As I commented back on the 15th December 2009 and again on 7 September 2011 in an article about Don Brash:
‘Stanley Fisher (The New Global Economic Geography) and Angus Maddison (extensive work for the OECD) present some interesting statistics about the reddening sun, setting on the heyday of the West.
‘In 1900, the West (Western Europe, USA and ‘Western Offshoots’, i.e. Australia, New Zealand and Canada) held around 51.8 percent of World GDP. By 1950, this had risen to 56.8 percent but it fell to 46.8 percent in 1990 and 44.9 percent in 2001. It is estimated that it will have fallen to 33.2 percent by 2030.’
The CEBR forecasts the following standings for the Premier League in 2020:
1. USA – but losing relatively steeply
2. China – still No2 from 2011 but gaining
3. Japan – still No 3 but ailing
4. Russia – up from No 9 in 2011
5. India – up from No 10 in 2011
6. Brazil – steady 2011-2020 (having overtaken the UK this year)
7. Germany – down from No 4 in 2011
8. UK – down from No 7 in 2011 but having overtaken France
9. France – down from No 5 in 2011
10. Italy – down from No 8 in 2011.
We don’t have the figures for Australia and New Zealand bu I can assure you that they won’t look good.
In 2005 New Zealand was 58th in terms of GDP but fell to 62nd in 2010, having been passed by Slovakia – but at least it retained its position one ahead of Iraq. In 2005, Australia was 16th but it had fallen to 17th by 2010, still chasing Indonesia but overtaken by Turkey.
An Ageing West melting in the dawn, currency confetti flowing down -
Someone left the cake out in the rain,
I don't think we can save it, `cause it took so long to bake it,
And we'll never have that recipe again, oh no!
There will be another song for us, but we won’t sing it.
There will be another dream for us, someone else will bring it.
And we will pass the cup while it is warm,
Choking back our crumbs in turning from the sun.
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